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Animal Welfare

Satire

Aximage

N/A

September 21, 2022 - September 24, 2022

810 respondents

Next General Election in Portugal: 2029

The next General Election in Portugal is expected in 2029.

Portugal's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Aximage projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 34.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Aximage?

According to the latest national poll in Portugal by Aximage, Partido Socialista leads with 34.5%. They are followed by PSD: 30.9%, Chega: 8.9%, Iniciativa Liberal: 6.7%, Bloco de Esquerda: 3.8%, CDU: 3.2%, PAN: 3%, LIVRE: 2.1% and CDS–Partido Popular: 1.9%. Other parties secure 5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Portugal

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Portugal

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Aximage Projection?

PolitPro Score

Aximage achieved a PolitPro Score of 71 out of 100.

2.2

Election Accuracy

On average, Aximage's figures deviate by 2.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates Chega

In 29% of polls, Aximage rated Chega higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates PAN

In 25% of polls, Aximage rated PAN higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Partido Socialista

In 20% of polls, Aximage rated Partido Socialista higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Aliança Democrática

In 58% of polls, Aximage rated Aliança Democrática lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Iniciativa Liberal

In 22% of polls, Aximage rated Iniciativa Liberal lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Partido Socialista

In 27% of polls, Aximage rated Partido Socialista lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Aximage at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

230

Majority requires 116 seats

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the election in Portugal.

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Aximage)

According to Aximage, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Portuguese parliament: Partido Socialista with 84 representatives, PSD with 76 representatives, Chega with 22 representatives, Iniciativa Liberal with 16 representatives, Bloco de Esquerda with 9 representatives, CDU with 7 representatives, PAN with 7 representatives, LIVRE with 5 representatives and CDS–Partido Popular with 4 representatives.

The Electoral System in Portugal

Portugal's Parliament, the Assembleia da República, comprises 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on proportional representation, dividing the nation into 22 constituencies: the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, and two for overseas voters. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal employs closed party lists, meaning voters select a party's slate of candidates without directly influencing the order of individual nominees.

Electoral Thresholds

A distinctive feature of Portugal's electoral system is the absence of a formal legal threshold at the national level, unlike the 5% hurdle seen in Germany. The de facto barrier for parliamentary entry arises from the size of each constituency and the number of seats allocated, creating a 'natural quorum.' This means smaller parties have realistic chances in populous districts such as Lisbon or Porto, while in the smaller, inland districts, only the strongest political forces typically secure representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consulting with parliamentary parties and considering the election results. Since outright majorities are uncommon, coalition or minority governments frequently form. A well-known model is the 'Geringonça,' an informal arrangement where left-wing parties supported a minority government. While the government does not require a formal vote of confidence to assume office, it can be brought down by the rejection of its program or a parliamentary vote of no confidence.

Coalition Calculator

Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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