Latest Opinion Poll for Portugal's Election (CESOP–UCP, September 29, 2019)

September 26, 2019 - September 29, 2019

3226 respondents

Next General election in Portugal: 2029

The next General election in Portugal is expected in 2029.

Portugal's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the CESOP–UCP projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 37.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from CESOP–UCP?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Portugal, conducted by CESOP–UCP on September 29, 2019, Partido Socialista leads with 37%. Trailing are PSD: 30%, Bloco de Esquerda: 10%, CDU: 6%, CDS–Partido Popular: 5%, PAN: 3%, Aliança: 1%, Chega: 1%, Iniciativa Liberal: 1% and LIVRE: 1%. Other parties secure 5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Portugal
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the CESOP–UCP Projection?

?

PolitPro Score

CESOP–UCP achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

0.6

Election Accuracy

On average, CESOP–UCP's figures deviate by 0.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

CESOP–UCP at a Glance
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

230
Majority requires 116 seats

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the election in Portugal.

Partido Socialista + PSD
Centre
64.8%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda
Left
50.9%
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
Centre-Right
49.6%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE
Left
49.1%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
Left
46.5%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE
Left
46.1%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU
Left
45.2%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal
Left
43.5%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Intercampus)

According to Intercampus, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Portuguese parliament: Partido Socialista with 80 representatives, PSD with 69 representatives, Chega with 25 representatives, Iniciativa Liberal with 20 representatives, Bloco de Esquerda with 17 representatives, CDU with 7 representatives, LIVRE with 6 representatives, PAN with 5 representatives and CDS–Partido Popular with 1 representatives.

The Electoral System in Portugal

Portugal's Parliament, the Assembleia da República, comprises 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on proportional representation, dividing the nation into 22 constituencies: the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, and two for overseas voters. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal employs closed party lists, meaning voters select a party's slate of candidates without directly influencing the order of individual nominees.

Electoral Thresholds

A distinctive feature of Portugal's electoral system is the absence of a formal legal threshold at the national level, unlike the 5% hurdle seen in Germany. The de facto barrier for parliamentary entry arises from the size of each constituency and the number of seats allocated, creating a 'natural quorum.' This means smaller parties have realistic chances in populous districts such as Lisbon or Porto, while in the smaller, inland districts, only the strongest political forces typically secure representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consulting with parliamentary parties and considering the election results. Since outright majorities are uncommon, coalition or minority governments frequently form. A well-known model is the 'Geringonça,' an informal arrangement where left-wing parties supported a minority government. While the government does not require a formal vote of confidence to assume office, it can be brought down by the rejection of its program or a parliamentary vote of no confidence.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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