These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.

Far-Left

Left

Centre-Left

Centre

Big-tent party

Unknown

Centre-Right

Right

Far-Right

Liberal

Green

Regional

Animal Welfare

Satire

CESOP-UCP

N/A

December 28, 2021 - January 5, 2022

1238 respondents

Next General Election in Portugal: 2029

The next General Election in Portugal is expected in 2029.

Portugal's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the CESOP-UCP projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 35.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from CESOP-UCP?

According to the latest national poll in Portugal by CESOP-UCP, Partido Socialista leads with 38%. They are followed by PSD: 32%, Bloco de Esquerda: 6%, CDU: 6%, Chega: 5%, Iniciativa Liberal: 5%, PAN: 2%, CDS–Partido Popular: 2% and LIVRE: 1%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Portugal

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Portugal

Quality Check: How Reliable is the CESOP-UCP Projection?

PolitPro Score

CESOP-UCP achieved a PolitPro Score of 71 out of 100.

2.1

Election Accuracy

On average, CESOP-UCP's figures deviate by 2.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates Aliança Democrática

In 55% of polls, CESOP-UCP rated Aliança Democrática higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Chega

In 27% of polls, CESOP-UCP rated Chega higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Iniciativa Liberal

In 23% of polls, CESOP-UCP rated Iniciativa Liberal higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Partido Socialista

In 23% of polls, CESOP-UCP rated Partido Socialista higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Chega

In 27% of polls, CESOP-UCP rated Chega lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

CESOP-UCP at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

230

Majority requires 116 seats

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the election in Portugal.

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: CESOP-UCP)

According to CESOP-UCP, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Portuguese parliament: Partido Socialista with 91 representatives, PSD with 77 representatives, Bloco de Esquerda with 14 representatives, CDU with 14 representatives, Chega with 12 representatives, Iniciativa Liberal with 12 representatives, PAN with 4 representatives, CDS–Partido Popular with 4 representatives and LIVRE with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Portugal

Portugal's Parliament, the Assembleia da República, comprises 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on proportional representation, dividing the nation into 22 constituencies: the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, and two for overseas voters. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal employs closed party lists, meaning voters select a party's slate of candidates without directly influencing the order of individual nominees.

Electoral Thresholds

A distinctive feature of Portugal's electoral system is the absence of a formal legal threshold at the national level, unlike the 5% hurdle seen in Germany. The de facto barrier for parliamentary entry arises from the size of each constituency and the number of seats allocated, creating a 'natural quorum.' This means smaller parties have realistic chances in populous districts such as Lisbon or Porto, while in the smaller, inland districts, only the strongest political forces typically secure representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consulting with parliamentary parties and considering the election results. Since outright majorities are uncommon, coalition or minority governments frequently form. A well-known model is the 'Geringonça,' an informal arrangement where left-wing parties supported a minority government. While the government does not require a formal vote of confidence to assume office, it can be brought down by the rejection of its program or a parliamentary vote of no confidence.

Coalition Calculator

Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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