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Latest Opinion Poll for Portugal's Election (CESOP-UCP, July 15, 2022)

July 11, 2022 - July 15, 2022

885 respondents

Next General Election in Portugal: 2029

The next General Election in Portugal is expected in 2029.

Portugal's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the CESOP-UCP projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 32.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from CESOP-UCP?
According to the latest national poll in Portugal by CESOP-UCP, Partido Socialista leads with 38%. They are followed by PSD: 30%, Chega: 9%, Iniciativa Liberal: 6%, Bloco de Esquerda: 5%, CDU: 5%, LIVRE: 2%, PAN: 1% and CDS–Partido Popular: 1%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.
Current Election Trend: Portugal
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Portugal
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the CESOP-UCP Projection?

71

PolitPro Score

CESOP-UCP achieved a PolitPro Score of 71 out of 100.

2.1

Election Accuracy

On average, CESOP-UCP's figures deviate by 2.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

CESOP-UCP at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the election in Portugal.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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  • CH
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  • IL
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?
Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Unlock Analysis

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: CESOP-UCP)
According to CESOP-UCP, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Portuguese parliament: Partido Socialista with 91 representatives, PSD with 72 representatives, Chega with 21 representatives, Iniciativa Liberal with 14 representatives, Bloco de Esquerda with 12 representatives, CDU with 12 representatives, LIVRE with 4 representatives, PAN with 2 representatives and CDS–Partido Popular with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Portugal
Portugal's Parliament, the Assembleia da República, comprises 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on proportional representation, dividing the nation into 22 constituencies: the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, and two for overseas voters. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal employs closed party lists, meaning voters select a party's slate of candidates without directly influencing the order of individual nominees.

Electoral Thresholds
A distinctive feature of Portugal's electoral system is the absence of a formal legal threshold at the national level, unlike the 5% hurdle seen in Germany. The de facto barrier for parliamentary entry arises from the size of each constituency and the number of seats allocated, creating a 'natural quorum.' This means smaller parties have realistic chances in populous districts such as Lisbon or Porto, while in the smaller, inland districts, only the strongest political forces typically secure representation.

Government Formation and Traditions
In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consulting with parliamentary parties and considering the election results. Since outright majorities are uncommon, coalition or minority governments frequently form. A well-known model is the 'Geringonça,' an informal arrangement where left-wing parties supported a minority government. While the government does not require a formal vote of confidence to assume office, it can be brought down by the rejection of its program or a parliamentary vote of no confidence.
Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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