Portugal: Opinion poll by CESOP-UCP on 12/12/2025

The Portuguese Parliament, known as the Assembleia da República, consists of 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on proportional representation across 22 constituencies (corresponding to the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of Azores and Madeira, and two overseas constituencies). Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal utilizes closed lists, meaning that voters cast their ballot for a party list as a whole and cannot change the ranking of individual candidates.

A distinctive feature of the Portuguese electoral system is the absence of a formal legal threshold (such as a 5% rule) at the national level. The effective hurdle to enter parliament is determined by the size of each constituency and the number of mandates available there (the natural quorum). In high-population districts like Lisbon or Porto, smaller parties have a realistic chance of winning a seat, whereas in smaller inland districts, only the strongest political forces typically secure representation.

In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consulting with the parties represented in parliament and considering the election results. As absolute majorities are rare, coalition governments or minority administrations are common. A notable model is the "Geringonça" (an informal arrangement where a minority government is supported by left-wing parties). The government does not need to win a formal vote of confidence to take office, but it can be dismissed if its program is rejected or if parliament passes a motion of no confidence.

This overview shows all parties that, based on current polling, have a realistic chance of entering parliament in Portugal or significantly shape the political debate. Classifying their political orientation is essential for understanding bloc formation and the mathematically possible majorities in the next parliament.