The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. CESOP-UCP: single poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal, fieldwork ended 10 July 2026.
Changes since the last election on 18 May 2025
Based on this poll, the parties currently in government would win 30.0% of the parliamentary seats.
A recent voting intention poll for Portugal by CESOP-UCP shows Aliança Democrática leading with 29%, followed by Partido Socialista with 29%, Chega with 21%, Iniciativa Liberal with 8%, LIVRE with 6%, CDU with 3% and Bloco de Esquerda with 2%. Other parties achieve 2% of the votes.
To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.
4 election comparisons
Last on 10 July 2026
In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.
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Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Based on this poll, 7 parties would clear the electoral threshold and enter the parliament of Portugal: Aliança Democrática with 69 seats, Partido Socialista with 68 seats, Chega with 49 seats, Iniciativa Liberal with 19 seats, LIVRE with 14 seats, CDU with 7 seats and Bloco de Esquerda with 4 seats.
The Portuguese Parliament, the Assembleia da República, consists of 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is proportional representation, with the country divided into 22 constituencies (corresponding to the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, and two overseas constituencies). Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal uses closed lists, meaning voters choose a party list and have no direct influence on the order of individual candidates.
A distinctive feature of the Portuguese electoral system is the absence of an official legal electoral threshold (like Germany's 5% hurdle) at the national level. The de facto threshold for entering Parliament arises from the size of each constituency and the number of seats allocated there (natural quota). In populous constituencies like Lisbon or Porto, even smaller parties have realistic chances of securing a mandate, whereas in the smaller inland districts, often only the strongest political forces succeed.
In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consultations with the parties represented in Parliament and considering the election results. As absolute majorities are rare, coalition governments or minority governments often form. A well-known model is the 'Geringonça' (an informal arrangement where left-wing parties support a minority government). The government does not need to win a formal vote of confidence to take office but can be overthrown by the rejection of its government program or a vote of no confidence by Parliament.
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PolitPro combines scientific data and current poll values to make politics tangible for everyone. We use datasets from leading research projects and supplement them with our own research, analyses, and algorithms. This way, we make complex political contexts understandable and accessible to all. Supported by AI.
