Portugal Election Poll: Results from ICS/ISCTE on January 25, 2024

According to :institute, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Portuguese parliament: Partido Socialista with 86 representatives, PSD with 82 representatives, CDU with 14 representatives, Chega with 14 representatives, Iniciativa Liberal with 14 representatives, Bloco de Esquerda with 12 representatives, PAN with 4 representatives, LIVRE with 2 representatives and CDS–Partido Popular with 2 representatives.

Portugal's Parliament, the Assembleia da República, comprises 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on proportional representation, dividing the nation into 22 constituencies: the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, and two for overseas voters. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal employs closed party lists, meaning voters select a party's slate of candidates without directly influencing the order of individual nominees.

A distinctive feature of Portugal's electoral system is the absence of a formal legal threshold at the national level, unlike the 5% hurdle seen in Germany. The de facto barrier for parliamentary entry arises from the size of each constituency and the number of seats allocated, creating a 'natural quorum.' This means smaller parties have realistic chances in populous districts such as Lisbon or Porto, while in the smaller, inland districts, only the strongest political forces typically secure representation.

In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consulting with parliamentary parties and considering the election results. Since outright majorities are uncommon, coalition or minority governments frequently form. A well-known model is the 'Geringonça,' an informal arrangement where left-wing parties supported a minority government. While the government does not require a formal vote of confidence to assume office, it can be brought down by the rejection of its program or a parliamentary vote of no confidence.