Latest Opinion Poll for Portugal's Election (ICS/ISCTE, January 20, 2025)

January 9, 2025 - January 20, 2025

805 respondents

Next General election in Portugal: 2029

The next General election in Portugal is expected in 2029.

Portugal's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the ICS/ISCTE projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 35.7% of the parliamentary seats.

Current Election Trend: Portugal
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the ICS/ISCTE Projection?

66

PolitPro Score

ICS/ISCTE achieved a PolitPro Score of 66 out of 100.

1.8

Election Accuracy

On average, ICS/ISCTE's figures deviate by 1.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

ICS/ISCTE at a Glance
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Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

230
Majority requires 116 seats

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the election in Portugal.

Partido Socialista + PSD
Centre-Left
72.2%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda
Left
52.6%
Partido Socialista + CDU + PAN
Left
52.2%
Partido Socialista + CDU + Iniciativa Liberal
Left
51.7%
Partido Socialista + CDU
Left
49.6%
Partido Socialista + PAN
Left
46.1%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal
Left
45.7%
Partido Socialista
Left
43.5%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Aximage)

According to :institute, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Portuguese parliament: Partido Socialista with 100 representatives, PSD with 66 representatives, Bloco de Esquerda with 21 representatives, CDU with 14 representatives, Chega with 13 representatives, PAN with 6 representatives, Iniciativa Liberal with 5 representatives and CDS–Partido Popular with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Portugal

Portugal's Parliament, the Assembleia da República, comprises 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on proportional representation, dividing the nation into 22 constituencies: the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, and two for overseas voters. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal employs closed party lists, meaning voters select a party's slate of candidates without directly influencing the order of individual nominees.

Electoral Thresholds

A distinctive feature of Portugal's electoral system is the absence of a formal legal threshold at the national level, unlike the 5% hurdle seen in Germany. The de facto barrier for parliamentary entry arises from the size of each constituency and the number of seats allocated, creating a 'natural quorum.' This means smaller parties have realistic chances in populous districts such as Lisbon or Porto, while in the smaller, inland districts, only the strongest political forces typically secure representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consulting with parliamentary parties and considering the election results. Since outright majorities are uncommon, coalition or minority governments frequently form. A well-known model is the 'Geringonça,' an informal arrangement where left-wing parties supported a minority government. While the government does not require a formal vote of confidence to assume office, it can be brought down by the rejection of its program or a parliamentary vote of no confidence.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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