Latest Opinion Poll for Portugal's Election (Pitagórica, September 23, 2019)

September 20, 2019 - September 23, 2019

600 respondents

Next General election in Portugal: 2029

The next General election in Portugal is expected in 2029.

Portugal's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Pitagórica projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 35.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Pitagórica?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Portugal, conducted by Pitagórica on September 23, 2019, Partido Socialista leads with 36%. Trailing are PSD: 28.5%, Bloco de Esquerda: 10.5%, CDU: 6.8%, CDS–Partido Popular: 4.4%, PAN: 3.7%, Iniciativa Liberal: 1.2%, LIVRE: 0.9%, Aliança: 0.5% and Chega: 0.5%. Other parties secure 7% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Pitagórica Projection?

75

PolitPro Score

Pitagórica achieved a PolitPro Score of 75 out of 100.

1.7

Election Accuracy

On average, Pitagórica's figures deviate by 1.7 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Pitagórica at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

230
Majority requires 116 seats

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the election in Portugal.

Aliança Democrática + Chega
Right
55.2%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
Centre
54.3%
Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE + CDU + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
Centre-Right
45.7%
Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE + CDU + Bloco de Esquerda
Centre-Right
44.8%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE + CDU + Bloco de Esquerda
Left
43.9%
Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE + CDU + PAN
Centre-Right
43.9%
Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE + CDU
Centre-Right
43.0%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE + CDU + PAN
Left
43.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: CESOP-UCP)

According to CESOP-UCP, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Portuguese parliament: Aliança Democrática with 70 representatives, Chega with 57 representatives, Partido Socialista with 55 representatives, Iniciativa Liberal with 21 representatives, LIVRE with 14 representatives, CDU with 7 representatives, Bloco de Esquerda with 4 representatives and PAN with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Portugal

Portugal's Parliament, the Assembleia da República, comprises 230 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on proportional representation, dividing the nation into 22 constituencies: the mainland districts, the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, and two for overseas voters. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. Portugal employs closed party lists, meaning voters select a party's slate of candidates without directly influencing the order of individual nominees.

Electoral Thresholds

A distinctive feature of Portugal's electoral system is the absence of a formal legal threshold at the national level, unlike the 5% hurdle seen in Germany. The de facto barrier for parliamentary entry arises from the size of each constituency and the number of seats allocated, creating a 'natural quorum.' This means smaller parties have realistic chances in populous districts such as Lisbon or Porto, while in the smaller, inland districts, only the strongest political forces typically secure representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Portugal, the President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister after consulting with parliamentary parties and considering the election results. Since outright majorities are uncommon, coalition or minority governments frequently form. A well-known model is the 'Geringonça,' an informal arrangement where left-wing parties supported a minority government. While the government does not require a formal vote of confidence to assume office, it can be brought down by the rejection of its program or a parliamentary vote of no confidence.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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