Portugal: Poll by Intercampus from 16.11.2020

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
37.1
-0.4
PSD
24.2
-0.6
BE
7.7
-3.3
CH
7.3
-0.4
PAN
5.3
+1.2
CDU
4.9
+0.6
PP
4.1
±0.0
IL
3.3
+0.9
L
1.8
+1.4
Others
4.3
+0.6
Intercampus – 622 respondents – 09.11.2020-16.11.2020

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 60.

Low number of respondents

Only 622 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher

In 45% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher

In 35% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 38% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSD lower

In 60% of election polls Intercampus rates PSD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Intercampus shows the following results: Partido Socialista 37.1%, PSD 24.2%, Bloco de Esquerda 7.7%, Chega 7.3%, PAN 5.3%, CDU 4.9%, CDS–Partido Popular 4.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 3.3% and LIVRE 1.8%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Partido Socialista might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.4 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Intercampus. For this purpose, 622 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (09.11.2020 - 16.11.2020).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
18
7.8%
CDU
12
5.2%
PAN
12
5.2%
L
4
1.7%
PS
91
39.6%
IL
7
3%
PSD
59
25.7%
CH
17
7.4%
PP
10
4.3%
Partido Socialista + PSD
65.2%
Partido Socialista + CDU + PAN + Iniciativa Liberal
53.0%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU
52.6%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
52.6%
Partido Socialista + CDU + PAN + LIVRE
51.7%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal
50.4%
Partido Socialista + CDU + PAN
50.0%
Partido Socialista + CDU + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE
49.6%
Partido Socialista + PAN + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE
49.6%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Intercampus. The survey took place between 09.11.2020 and 16.11.2020 among 622 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 37.1%, PSD 24.2%, Bloco de Esquerda 7.7%, Chega 7.3%, PAN 5.3%, CDU 4.9%, CDS–Partido Popular 4.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 3.3% and LIVRE 1.8%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.