Portugal
Election trend
Parties

Portugal: Poll by Aximage from 10.07.2022

Polling data

PS
35.8
-4.9
PSD
30.1
+4.9
CH
10.2
+2.4
IL
6.1
-1.8
BE
5.6
+1.6
CDU
3.3
-0.8
L
2.0
+0.5
PAN
1.9
+0.4
PP
1.4
-0.8
Sonst.
3.6
-1.5
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+7.1
PSD
CH
-7.9
IL
+1.0
BE
+1.1
CDU
±0.0
L
-1.3
PAN
±0.0
PP
Aximage – 810 respondents – 05.07.2022-10.07.2022
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.
Low number of respondents
Only 810 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.
Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower
In 30% of election polls Aximage rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from Aximage shows the following results: Partido Socialista 35.8%, PSD 30.1%, Chega 10.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 5.6%, CDU 3.3%, LIVRE 2%, PAN 1.9% and CDS–Partido Popular 1.4%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Partido Socialista might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.1 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.9) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Aximage. For this purpose, 810 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (05.07.2022 - 10.07.2022).

Coalition possibilities

230
BE
13
CDU
8
L
4
PAN
4
PS
87
IL
14
PSD
73
CH
24
PP
3
Majority requires 116 seats
Partido Socialista + PSD
160
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU
122
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE
118
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
118
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE + PAN
117
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE + PAN
116
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + CDS–Partido Popular
114
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda
114
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE
113
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + PAN
113

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Aximage. The survey took place between 05.07.2022 and 10.07.2022 among 810 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 35.8%, PSD 30.1%, Chega 10.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 5.6%, CDU 3.3%, LIVRE 2%, PAN 1.9% and CDS–Partido Popular 1.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.