Portugal: Poll by Pitagórica from 17.11.2022

Polling data

PS
35.1
-1.1
PSD
30.4
+0.4
CH
8.2
-1.1
IL
6.1
-1.8
CDU
5.1
+1.3
BE
3.8
-0.1
L
2.0
+1.0
PP
1.3
-0.3
PAN
1.2
±0.0
Others
6.8
+1.7
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+6.4
PSD
New
CH
-9.9
IL
+1.0
CDU
+1.8
BE
-0.7
L
-1.3
PP
New
PAN
-0.7
Pitagórica – 828 respondents – 11.11.2022-17.11.2022

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 828 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista higher

In 43% of election polls, Pitagórica rates Partido Socialista higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSD higher

In 33% of election polls, Pitagórica rates PSD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Pitagórica shows the following results: Partido Socialista 35.1%, PSD 30.4%, Chega 8.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.1%, CDU 5.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 3.8%, LIVRE 2%, CDS–Partido Popular 1.3% and PAN 1.2%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Partido Socialista might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.4 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-9.9) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Pitagórica. For this purpose, 828 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (11.11.2022 - 17.11.2022).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
CDU
12
5.2%
BE
9
3.9%
L
4
1.7%
PAN
3
1.3%
PS
88
38.3%
IL
15
6.5%
PSD
76
33%
CH
20
8.7%
PP
3
1.3%
Partido Socialista + PSD
71.3%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + Bloco de Esquerda
53.9%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE
51.7%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + PAN
51.3%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE
50.4%
Partido Socialista + CDU + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + PAN
50.4%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
50.0%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
50.0%
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + CDS–Partido Popular
49.6%
Partido Socialista + CDU + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Pitagórica. The survey took place between 11.11.2022 and 17.11.2022 among 828 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 35.1%, PSD 30.4%, Chega 8.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.1%, CDU 5.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 3.8%, LIVRE 2%, CDS–Partido Popular 1.3% and PAN 1.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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