Portugal: Poll by Intercampus from 14.12.2022

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
30.9
+2.1
PSD
25.3
-0.9
CH
11.0
-2.6
BE
8.6
+1.3
IL
8.6
+0.6
CDU
4.4
-2.0
PAN
3.6
+0.9
PP
2.2
+0.7
L
1.9
+0.4
Others
3.5
-0.5
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+2.2
PSD
New
CH
-7.1
BE
+4.1
IL
+3.5
CDU
+1.1
PAN
+1.7
PP
New
L
-1.4
Intercampus – 663 respondents – 12.12.2022-14.12.2022

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 5.

Low number of respondents

Only 663 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher

In 44% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher

In 36% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 37% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSD lower

In 60% of election polls Intercampus rates PSD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Intercampus shows the following results: Partido Socialista 30.9%, PSD 25.3%, Chega 11%, Bloco de Esquerda 8.6%, Iniciativa Liberal 8.6%, CDU 4.4%, PAN 3.6%, CDS–Partido Popular 2.2% and LIVRE 1.9%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.1 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Intercampus. For this purpose, 663 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (12.12.2022 - 14.12.2022).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
21
9.1%
CDU
10
4.3%
PAN
8
3.5%
L
4
1.7%
PS
75
32.6%
IL
20
8.7%
PSD
61
26.5%
CH
26
11.3%
PP
5
2.2%
Partido Socialista + PSD
59.1%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN + LIVRE
51.3%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + PAN + LIVRE
50.9%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal
50.4%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN
49.6%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + PAN
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Intercampus. The survey took place between 12.12.2022 and 14.12.2022 among 663 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 30.9%, PSD 25.3%, Chega 11%, Bloco de Esquerda 8.6%, Iniciativa Liberal 8.6%, CDU 4.4%, PAN 3.6%, CDS–Partido Popular 2.2% and LIVRE 1.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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