Portugal
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Elections

Portugal: Poll by CESOP-UCP from 17.02.2023

Polling data

PS
32.0
-6.0
PSD
31.0
+1.0
CH
11.0
+2.0
IL
8.0
+2.0
BE
7.0
+2.0
CDU
4.0
-1.0
PAN
2.0
+1.0
L
2.0
±0.0
PP
1.0
±0.0
Others
2.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 30.01.2022
PS
-9.7
PSD
+3.2
CH
+3.8
IL
+3.0
BE
+2.3
CDU
-0.4
PAN
+0.5
L
+0.7
PP
-0.6
CESOP-UCP – 1002 respondents – 09.02.2023-17.02.2023

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from CESOP-UCP shows the following results: Partido Socialista 32%, PSD 31%, Chega 11%, Iniciativa Liberal 8%, Bloco de Esquerda 7%, CDU 4%, PAN 2%, LIVRE 2% and CDS–Partido Popular 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Chega might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.8 growth since the last election. Partido Socialista, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-9.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

António Costa is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Partido Socialista. With 32.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CESOP-UCP. For this purpose, 1002 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 8 days (09.02.2023 - 17.02.2023).

Next election: 2026
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2026.

Coalition possibilities

Partido Socialista + PSD
64.3
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU
52.1
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
51.0
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties achieve 32.7% of the votes.

Frequently asked questions about election polls

election poll results
This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by CESOP-UCP. The survey took place between 09.02.2023 and 17.02.2023 among 1002 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 32%, PSD 31%, Chega 11%, Iniciativa Liberal 8%, Bloco de Esquerda 7%, CDU 4%, PAN 2%, LIVRE 2% and CDS–Partido Popular 1%.
How reliable are election polls?
Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.
What should you look out for in election polls?
Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.

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