Portugal
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Portugal: Poll by Intercampus from 06.07.2023

Polling data

PS
25.2
+0.7
PSD
24.5
-1.8
CH
13.6
+0.7
IL
9.8
+1.0
BE
9.5
-0.7
PAN
4.8
+0.9
CDU
4.6
+0.5
L
2.5
+0.1
PP
1.2
-1.2
Sonst.
4.3
-0.2
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
-3.5
PSD
New
CH
-4.5
IL
+4.7
BE
+5.0
PAN
+2.9
CDU
+1.3
L
-0.8
PP
New
Intercampus – 623 respondents – 03.07.2023-06.07.2023

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 623 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher

In 44% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher

In 35% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 43% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSD lower

In 60% of election polls Intercampus rates PSD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from Intercampus shows the following results: Partido Socialista 25.2%, PSD 24.5%, Chega 13.6%, Iniciativa Liberal 9.8%, Bloco de Esquerda 9.5%, PAN 4.8%, CDU 4.6%, LIVRE 2.5% and CDS–Partido Popular 1.2%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.0 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Intercampus. For this purpose, 623 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (03.07.2023 - 06.07.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
BE
23
CDU
11
PAN
11
L
6
PS
61
IL
23
PSD
59
CH
33
PP
3
Majority requires 116 seats
Partido Socialista + PSD
120
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
118
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + CDS–Partido Popular
118
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU
118
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
115
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE
113

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Intercampus. The survey took place between 03.07.2023 and 06.07.2023 among 623 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 25.2%, PSD 24.5%, Chega 13.6%, Iniciativa Liberal 9.8%, Bloco de Esquerda 9.5%, PAN 4.8%, CDU 4.6%, LIVRE 2.5% and CDS–Partido Popular 1.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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