Upcoming elections:

Portugal: Poll by CESOP-UCP from 15.07.2023

Polling data

PSD
33.0
+2.0
PS
32.0
±0.0
CH
10.0
-1.0
BE
7.0
±0.0
IL
7.0
-1.0
CDU
4.0
±0.0
L
2.0
±0.0
PP
1.0
±0.0
PAN
1.0
-1.0
Sonst.
3.0
+1.0
CESOP-UCP – 1006 respondents – 06.07.2023-15.07.2023
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.
Institute often rates Chega lower
In 39% of election polls CESOP-UCP rates Chega lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSD higher
In 54% of election polls, CESOP-UCP rates PSD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from CESOP-UCP shows the following results: PSD 33%, Partido Socialista 32%, Chega 10%, Bloco de Esquerda 7%, Iniciativa Liberal 7%, CDU 4%, LIVRE 2%, CDS–Partido Popular 1% and PAN 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Partido Socialista might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.3 growth since the last election. PSD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (?) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CESOP-UCP. For this purpose, 1006 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (06.07.2023 - 15.07.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
BE
16
CDU
9
L
4
PAN
2
PS
77
IL
16
PSD
80
CH
24
PP
2
Majority requires 116 seats
PSD + Partido Socialista
157
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
120
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by CESOP-UCP. The survey took place between 06.07.2023 and 15.07.2023 among 1006 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSD 33%, Partido Socialista 32%, Chega 10%, Bloco de Esquerda 7%, Iniciativa Liberal 7%, CDU 4%, LIVRE 2%, CDS–Partido Popular 1% and PAN 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.