Portugal
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Elections

Portugal: Poll by CESOP-UCP from 15.07.2023

Polling data

PSD
33.0
+2.0
PS
32.0
±0.0
CH
10.0
-1.0
BE
7.0
±0.0
IL
7.0
-1.0
CDU
4.0
±0.0
L
2.0
±0.0
PP
1.0
±0.0
PAN
1.0
-1.0
Sonst.
3.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 30.01.2022
PSD
+5.2
PS
-9.7
CH
+2.8
BE
+2.3
IL
+2.0
CDU
-0.4
L
+0.7
PP
-0.6
PAN
-0.5
CESOP-UCP – 1006 respondents – 06.07.2023-15.07.2023
Next election: 2026
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2026.
Institute often rates Chega lower
In 50% of election polls CESOP-UCP rates Chega lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSD higher
In 50% of election polls, CESOP-UCP rates PSD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from CESOP-UCP shows the following results: PSD 33%, Partido Socialista 32%, Chega 10%, Bloco de Esquerda 7%, Iniciativa Liberal 7%, CDU 4%, LIVRE 2%, CDS–Partido Popular 1% and PAN 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, PSD might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.2 growth since the last election. Partido Socialista, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-9.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

António Costa is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Partido Socialista. With 33.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CESOP-UCP. For this purpose, 1006 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (06.07.2023 - 15.07.2023).

Coalition possibilities

PSD + Partido Socialista
67.0

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results
This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by CESOP-UCP. The survey took place between 06.07.2023 and 15.07.2023 among 1006 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSD 33%, Partido Socialista 32%, Chega 10%, Bloco de Esquerda 7%, Iniciativa Liberal 7%, CDU 4%, LIVRE 2%, CDS–Partido Popular 1% and PAN 1%.
How reliable are election polls?
Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.
What should you look out for in election polls?
Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.