Portugal
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Portugal: Poll by Aximage from 11.07.2023

Polling data

PS
28.8
+0.5
PSD
27.7
-0.9
CH
13.0
+0.9
BE
8.0
+1.7
IL
5.2
-0.9
PAN
3.8
-0.7
CDU
3.2
-0.3
L
2.7
±0.0
PP
1.1
-0.2
Sonst.
6.5
-0.1
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+0.1
PSD
New
CH
-5.1
BE
+3.5
IL
+0.1
PAN
+1.9
CDU
-0.1
L
-0.6
PP
New
Aximage – 800 respondents – 06.07.2023-11.07.2023

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 800 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower

In 32% of election polls Aximage rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LIVRE lower

In 32% of election polls Aximage rates LIVRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from Aximage shows the following results: Partido Socialista 28.8%, PSD 27.7%, Chega 13%, Bloco de Esquerda 8%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.2%, PAN 3.8%, CDU 3.2%, LIVRE 2.7% and CDS–Partido Popular 1.1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.5 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Aximage. For this purpose, 800 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (06.07.2023 - 11.07.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
BE
20
CDU
7
PAN
9
L
6
PS
72
IL
13
PSD
69
CH
32
PP
2
Majority requires 116 seats
Partido Socialista + PSD
141
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN + CDU
121
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN + LIVRE
120
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE
118
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN + CDU + LIVRE
114
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
114
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN
114

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Aximage. The survey took place between 06.07.2023 and 11.07.2023 among 800 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 28.8%, PSD 27.7%, Chega 13%, Bloco de Esquerda 8%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.2%, PAN 3.8%, CDU 3.2%, LIVRE 2.7% and CDS–Partido Popular 1.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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