Portugal: Poll by Aximage from 05.10.2023

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
29.3
+0.5
PSD
25.6
-2.1
CH
13.6
+0.6
BE
7.1
-0.9
IL
5.3
+0.1
CDU
4.3
+1.1
PAN
3.6
-0.2
L
2.8
+0.1
PP
2.6
+1.5
Others
5.8
-0.7
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+0.6
PSD
New
CH
-4.5
BE
+2.6
IL
+0.2
CDU
+1.0
PAN
+1.7
L
-0.5
PP
New
Aximage – 601 respondents – 02.10.2023-05.10.2023

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 58.

Low number of respondents

Only 601 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Aximage shows the following results: Partido Socialista 29.3%, PSD 25.6%, Chega 13.6%, Bloco de Esquerda 7.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.3%, CDU 4.3%, PAN 3.6%, LIVRE 2.8% and CDS–Partido Popular 2.6%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.6 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Aximage. For this purpose, 601 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (02.10.2023 - 05.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
17
7.4%
CDU
10
4.3%
PAN
8
3.5%
L
7
3%
PS
73
31.7%
IL
13
5.7%
PSD
63
27.4%
CH
33
14.3%
PP
6
2.6%
Partido Socialista + PSD
59.1%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + PAN
52.6%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE
52.2%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN + LIVRE
51.3%
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + CDS–Partido Popular
50.0%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN + LIVRE
50.0%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Aximage. The survey took place between 02.10.2023 and 05.10.2023 among 601 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 29.3%, PSD 25.6%, Chega 13.6%, Bloco de Esquerda 7.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.3%, CDU 4.3%, PAN 3.6%, LIVRE 2.8% and CDS–Partido Popular 2.6%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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