Portugal: Poll by ICS/ISCTE from 25.09.2023

Polling data

PS
31.0
±0.0
PSD
25.0
-5.0
CH
13.0
±0.0
BE
6.0
+1.0
CDU
6.0
+1.0
IL
3.0
-1.0
PP
2.0
+1.0
PAN
2.0
±0.0
L
2.0
+1.0
Sonst.
10.0
+2.0
ICS/ISCTE – 804 respondents – 16.09.2023-25.09.2023
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.
Low number of respondents
Only 804 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.
Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda lower
In 31% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Bloco de Esquerda lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Chega higher
In 33% of election polls, ICS/ISCTE rates Chega higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower
In 50% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Partido Socialista higher
In 38% of election polls, ICS/ISCTE rates Partido Socialista higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from ICS/ISCTE shows the following results: Partido Socialista 31%, PSD 25%, Chega 13%, Bloco de Esquerda 6%, CDU 6%, Iniciativa Liberal 3%, CDS–Partido Popular 2%, PAN 2% and LIVRE 2%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, CDU might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.7 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by ICS/ISCTE. For this purpose, 804 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (16.09.2023 - 25.09.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
BE
15
CDU
15
PAN
5
L
5
PS
80
IL
7
PSD
65
CH
33
PP
5
Majority requires 116 seats
Partido Socialista + PSD
145
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN + LIVRE
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + Iniciativa Liberal
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by ICS/ISCTE. The survey took place between 16.09.2023 and 25.09.2023 among 804 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 31%, PSD 25%, Chega 13%, Bloco de Esquerda 6%, CDU 6%, Iniciativa Liberal 3%, CDS–Partido Popular 2%, PAN 2% and LIVRE 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.