Portugal: Poll by ICS/ISCTE from 25.09.2023

Polling data

PS
31.0
±0.0
PSD
25.0
-5.0
CH
13.0
±0.0
BE
6.0
+1.0
CDU
6.0
+1.0
IL
3.0
-1.0
PP
2.0
+1.0
PAN
2.0
±0.0
L
2.0
+1.0
Others
10.0
+2.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+2.3
PSD
New
CH
-5.1
BE
+1.5
CDU
+2.7
IL
-2.1
PP
New
PAN
+0.1
L
-1.3
ICS/ISCTE – 804 respondents – 16.09.2023-25.09.2023

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 804 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower

In 57% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista higher

In 47% of election polls, ICS/ISCTE rates Partido Socialista higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from ICS/ISCTE shows the following results: Partido Socialista 31%, PSD 25%, Chega 13%, Bloco de Esquerda 6%, CDU 6%, Iniciativa Liberal 3%, CDS–Partido Popular 2%, PAN 2% and LIVRE 2%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, CDU might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.7 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by ICS/ISCTE. For this purpose, 804 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (16.09.2023 - 25.09.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
15
6.5%
CDU
15
6.5%
PAN
5
2.2%
L
5
2.2%
PS
80
34.8%
IL
7
3%
PSD
65
28.3%
CH
33
14.3%
PP
5
2.2%
Partido Socialista + PSD
63.0%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN + LIVRE
52.2%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + Iniciativa Liberal
50.9%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN
50.0%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE
50.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by ICS/ISCTE. The survey took place between 16.09.2023 and 25.09.2023 among 804 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 31%, PSD 25%, Chega 13%, Bloco de Esquerda 6%, CDU 6%, Iniciativa Liberal 3%, CDS–Partido Popular 2%, PAN 2% and LIVRE 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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