Portugal: Poll by Intercampus from 08.11.2023

Polling data

PSD
26.9
-0.9
PS
22.1
-5.2
CH
16.1
+3.4
BE
9.8
+2.5
IL
8.7
-0.3
CDU
4.0
-0.4
L
3.3
+1.8
PAN
2.8
-0.7
PP
2.5
+0.8
Others
3.8
-1.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PSD
New
PS
-6.6
CH
-2.0
BE
+5.3
IL
+3.6
CDU
+0.7
L
±0.0
PAN
+0.9
PP
New
Intercampus – 602 respondents – 07.11.2023-08.11.2023

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 602 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher

In 42% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher

In 33% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 40% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSD lower

In 60% of election polls Intercampus rates PSD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from Intercampus shows the following results: PSD 26.9%, Partido Socialista 22.1%, Chega 16.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 9.8%, Iniciativa Liberal 8.7%, CDU 4%, LIVRE 3.3%, PAN 2.8% and CDS–Partido Popular 2.5%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.3 growth since the last election. PSD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Intercampus. For this purpose, 602 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (07.11.2023 - 08.11.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
23
10.2%
CDU
9
4.2%
L
7
3.4%
PAN
6
2.9%
PS
54
23%
IL
21
9%
PSD
65
28%
CH
39
16.7%
PP
6
2.6%
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
54.3%
PSD + Partido Socialista
51.7%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE
49.6%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + PAN
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Intercampus. The survey took place between 07.11.2023 and 08.11.2023 among 602 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSD 26.9%, Partido Socialista 22.1%, Chega 16.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 9.8%, Iniciativa Liberal 8.7%, CDU 4%, LIVRE 3.3%, PAN 2.8% and CDS–Partido Popular 2.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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