Portugal: Poll by CESOP-UCP from 24.11.2023

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PSD
29.0
-4.0
PS
28.0
-4.0
CH
16.0
+6.0
IL
9.0
+2.0
BE
6.0
-1.0
CDU
3.0
-1.0
PP
2.0
+1.0
PAN
2.0
+1.0
L
2.0
±0.0
Others
3.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PSD
New
PS
-0.7
CH
-2.1
IL
+3.9
BE
+1.5
CDU
-0.3
PP
New
PAN
+0.1
L
-1.3
CESOP-UCP – 1102 respondents – 15.11.2023-24.11.2023

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 58.

Institute often rates Chega lower

In 43% of election polls CESOP-UCP rates Chega lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSD higher

In 54% of election polls, CESOP-UCP rates PSD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from CESOP-UCP shows the following results: PSD 29%, Partido Socialista 28%, Chega 16%, Iniciativa Liberal 9%, Bloco de Esquerda 6%, CDU 3%, CDS–Partido Popular 2%, PAN 2% and LIVRE 2%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Iniciativa Liberal might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.9 growth since the last election. PSD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CESOP-UCP. For this purpose, 1102 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (15.11.2023 - 24.11.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
14
6.1%
CDU
7
3%
PAN
4
1.7%
L
4
1.7%
PS
68
29.6%
IL
21
9.1%
PSD
70
30.4%
CH
38
16.5%
PP
4
1.7%
PSD + Partido Socialista
60.0%
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
56.1%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN
49.6%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE
49.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by CESOP-UCP. The survey took place between 15.11.2023 and 24.11.2023 among 1102 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSD 29%, Partido Socialista 28%, Chega 16%, Iniciativa Liberal 9%, Bloco de Esquerda 6%, CDU 3%, CDS–Partido Popular 2%, PAN 2% and LIVRE 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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