Portugal: Poll by Consulmark2 from 06.12.2023

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PSD
30.0
±0.0
PS
26.0
±0.0
CH
17.2
±0.0
IL
6.7
±0.0
BE
4.4
±0.0
PP
2.3
±0.0
L
2.3
±0.0
CDU
2.1
±0.0
PAN
1.4
±0.0
Others
7.6
±0.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PSD
New
PS
-2.7
CH
-0.9
IL
+1.6
BE
-0.1
PP
New
L
-1.0
CDU
-1.2
PAN
-0.5
Consulmark2 – 575 respondents – 30.11.2023-06.12.2023

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 58.

Low number of respondents

Only 575 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda lower

In 33% of election polls Consulmark2 rates Bloco de Esquerda lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PAN lower

In 50% of election polls Consulmark2 rates PAN lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 83% of election polls Consulmark2 rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Consulmark2 shows the following results: PSD 30%, Partido Socialista 26%, Chega 17.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.7%, Bloco de Esquerda 4.4%, CDS–Partido Popular 2.3%, LIVRE 2.3%, CDU 2.1% and PAN 1.4%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Iniciativa Liberal might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.6 growth since the last election. PSD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Consulmark2. For this purpose, 575 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (30.11.2023 - 06.12.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
11
4.8%
CDU
5
2.2%
L
5
2.2%
PAN
3
1.3%
PS
65
28.3%
IL
17
7.4%
PSD
76
33%
CH
43
18.7%
PP
5
2.2%
PSD + Partido Socialista
61.3%
PSD + Chega
51.7%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE
44.8%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Consulmark2. The survey took place between 30.11.2023 and 06.12.2023 among 575 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSD 30%, Partido Socialista 26%, Chega 17.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.7%, Bloco de Esquerda 4.4%, CDS–Partido Popular 2.3%, LIVRE 2.3%, CDU 2.1% and PAN 1.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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