Portugal: Poll by ICS/ISCTE from 27.11.2023

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
29.0
-2.0
PSD
26.0
+1.0
CH
15.0
+2.0
BE
6.0
±0.0
IL
6.0
+3.0
CDU
4.0
-2.0
PAN
3.0
+1.0
PP
1.0
-1.0
L
1.0
-1.0
Others
9.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+0.3
PSD
New
CH
-3.1
BE
+1.5
IL
+0.9
CDU
+0.7
PAN
+1.1
PP
New
L
-2.3
ICS/ISCTE – 803 respondents – 18.11.2023-27.11.2023

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 59.

Low number of respondents

Only 803 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda lower

In 31% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Bloco de Esquerda lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower

In 60% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LIVRE lower

In 56% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates LIVRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista higher

In 50% of election polls, ICS/ISCTE rates Partido Socialista higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from ICS/ISCTE shows the following results: Partido Socialista 29%, PSD 26%, Chega 15%, Bloco de Esquerda 6%, Iniciativa Liberal 6%, CDU 4%, PAN 3%, CDS–Partido Popular 1% and LIVRE 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.5 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by ICS/ISCTE. For this purpose, 803 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (18.11.2023 - 27.11.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
15
6.5%
CDU
10
4.3%
PAN
7
3%
L
2
0.9%
PS
74
32.2%
IL
15
6.5%
PSD
67
29.1%
CH
38
16.5%
PP
2
0.9%
Partido Socialista + PSD
61.3%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + PAN
52.6%
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
52.2%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
49.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by ICS/ISCTE. The survey took place between 18.11.2023 and 27.11.2023 among 803 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 29%, PSD 26%, Chega 15%, Bloco de Esquerda 6%, Iniciativa Liberal 6%, CDU 4%, PAN 3%, CDS–Partido Popular 1% and LIVRE 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
How to embed the election trend on your website:
  1. Copy code below
  2. Paste code on your website
  3. Done!
Copy code
Copied!