Portugal: Poll by Consulmark2 from 17.01.2024

Polling data

AD
28.1
+28.1
PS
26.7
+0.2
CH
17.5
+2.3
BE
7.2
-0.5
IL
6.3
+0.5
CDU
3.3
+0.5
L
2.1
-0.2
PAN
1.2
+0.4
Others
7.6
-31.3
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
AD
-1.4
PS
-2.0
CH
-0.6
BE
+2.7
IL
+1.2
CDU
±0.0
L
-1.2
PAN
-0.7
Consulmark2 – 801 respondents – 11.01.2024-17.01.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 801 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Consulmark2 shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 28.1%, Partido Socialista 26.7%, Chega 17.5%, Bloco de Esquerda 7.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.3%, CDU 3.3%, LIVRE 2.1% and PAN 1.2%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.7 growth since the last election. Partido Socialista, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.0) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 30.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Consulmark2. For this purpose, 801 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (11.01.2024 - 17.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
18
7.8%
CDU
8
3.5%
L
5
2.2%
PAN
3
1.3%
PS
67
29.1%
IL
15
6.5%
AD
70
30.4%
CH
44
19.1%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
59.6%
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
56.1%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
49.6%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Consulmark2. The survey took place between 11.01.2024 and 17.01.2024 among 801 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 28.1%, Partido Socialista 26.7%, Chega 17.5%, Bloco de Esquerda 7.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.3%, CDU 3.3%, LIVRE 2.1% and PAN 1.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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