Portugal: Poll by ICS/ISCTE from 25.01.2024

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
29.0
±0.0
AD
27.0
+27.0
CH
21.0
+6.0
BE
5.0
-1.0
IL
5.0
-1.0
CDU
3.0
-1.0
L
1.0
±0.0
PAN
1.0
-2.0
Others
8.0
-28.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+0.3
AD
-2.5
CH
+2.9
BE
+0.5
IL
-0.1
CDU
-0.3
L
-2.3
PAN
-0.9
ICS/ISCTE – 804 respondents – 16.01.2024-25.01.2024

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 61.

Low number of respondents

Only 804 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda lower

In 31% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Bloco de Esquerda lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower

In 60% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LIVRE lower

In 56% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates LIVRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista higher

In 50% of election polls, ICS/ISCTE rates Partido Socialista higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from ICS/ISCTE shows the following results: Partido Socialista 29%, Aliança Democrática 27%, Chega 21%, Bloco de Esquerda 5%, Iniciativa Liberal 5%, CDU 3%, LIVRE 1% and PAN 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Chega might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.9 growth since the last election. Aliança Democrática, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 29.6% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by ICS/ISCTE. For this purpose, 804 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (16.01.2024 - 25.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
12
5.2%
CDU
7
3%
L
2
0.9%
PAN
2
0.9%
PS
74
32.2%
IL
12
5.2%
AD
68
29.6%
CH
53
23%
Partido Socialista + Aliança Democrática
61.7%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
52.6%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
45.7%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by ICS/ISCTE. The survey took place between 16.01.2024 and 25.01.2024 among 804 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 29%, Aliança Democrática 27%, Chega 21%, Bloco de Esquerda 5%, Iniciativa Liberal 5%, CDU 3%, LIVRE 1% and PAN 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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