countries.PT: Poll by Consulmark2 from 12.02.2024

countries.PT: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
AD
30.0
+1.9
PS
27.4
+0.7
CH
18.1
+0.6
IL
5.5
-0.8
BE
4.2
-3.0
L
2.9
+0.8
CDU
2.6
-0.7
PAN
1.1
-0.1
Others
8.2
+0.6
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
AD
+0.5
PS
-1.3
CH
±0.0
IL
+0.4
BE
-0.3
L
-0.4
CDU
-0.7
PAN
-0.8
Consulmark2 – 804 respondents – 06.02.2024-12.02.2024

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in countries.PT will be held in 54.

Low number of respondents

Only 804 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda lower

In 33% of election polls Consulmark2 rates Bloco de Esquerda lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PAN lower

In 50% of election polls Consulmark2 rates PAN lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 83% of election polls Consulmark2 rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

countries.PT - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Consulmark2 shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 30%, Partido Socialista 27.4%, Chega 18.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.5%, Bloco de Esquerda 4.2%, LIVRE 2.9%, CDU 2.6% and PAN 1.1%. If an election were held in countries.PT this Sunday, Aliança Democrática might gain the most in voter favorability with +0.5 growth since the last election. Partido Socialista, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.3) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 33.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Consulmark2. For this purpose, 804 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (06.02.2024 - 12.02.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
10
4.3%
CDU
6
2.6%
L
7
3%
PAN
2
0.9%
PS
69
30%
IL
14
6.1%
AD
76
33%
CH
46
20%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
63.0%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
53.0%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + CDU
46.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Consulmark2. The survey took place between 06.02.2024 and 12.02.2024 among 804 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 30%, Partido Socialista 27.4%, Chega 18.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.5%, Bloco de Esquerda 4.2%, LIVRE 2.9%, CDU 2.6% and PAN 1.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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