Portugal: Poll by CESOP-UCP from 21.02.2024

Polling data

AD
35.0
+3.0
PS
29.0
+1.0
CH
17.0
-2.0
IL
6.0
±0.0
BE
4.0
-1.0
L
3.0
±0.0
CDU
2.0
±0.0
PAN
1.0
±0.0
Others
3.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
AD
+5.5
PS
+0.3
CH
-1.1
IL
+0.9
BE
-0.5
L
-0.3
CDU
-1.3
PAN
-0.9
CESOP-UCP – 1284 respondents – 19.02.2024-21.02.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates Aliança Democrática higher

In 71% of election polls, CESOP-UCP rates Aliança Democrática higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Chega lower

In 43% of election polls CESOP-UCP rates Chega lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from CESOP-UCP shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 35%, Partido Socialista 29%, Chega 17%, Iniciativa Liberal 6%, Bloco de Esquerda 4%, LIVRE 3%, CDU 2% and PAN 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Aliança Democrática might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.5 growth since the last election. CDU, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.3) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 36.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CESOP-UCP. For this purpose, 1284 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (19.02.2024 - 21.02.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
9
3.9%
CDU
4
1.7%
L
7
3%
PAN
2
0.9%
PS
70
30.4%
IL
14
6.1%
AD
84
36.5%
CH
40
17.4%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
67.0%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
53.9%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + CDU
45.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by CESOP-UCP. The survey took place between 19.02.2024 and 21.02.2024 among 1284 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 35%, Partido Socialista 29%, Chega 17%, Iniciativa Liberal 6%, Bloco de Esquerda 4%, LIVRE 3%, CDU 2% and PAN 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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