Portugal: Poll by Duplimétrica from 29.02.2024

Polling data

AD
34.0
+2.0
PS
27.0
+1.0
CH
17.0
-1.0
IL
6.0
±0.0
BE
5.0
-1.0
L
4.0
±0.0
CDU
2.0
±0.0
PAN
1.0
±0.0
Others
4.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
AD
+4.5
PS
-1.7
CH
-1.1
IL
+0.9
BE
+0.5
L
+0.7
CDU
-1.3
PAN
-0.9
Duplimétrica – 600 respondents – 27.02.2024-29.02.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 600 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Aliança Democrática higher

In 57% of election polls, Duplimétrica rates Aliança Democrática higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates CDU lower

In 50% of election polls Duplimétrica rates CDU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Chega lower

In 36% of election polls Duplimétrica rates Chega lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher

In 50% of election polls, Duplimétrica rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LIVRE higher

In 43% of election polls, Duplimétrica rates LIVRE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 71% of election polls Duplimétrica rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Duplimétrica shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 34%, Partido Socialista 27%, Chega 17%, Iniciativa Liberal 6%, Bloco de Esquerda 5%, LIVRE 4%, CDU 2% and PAN 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Aliança Democrática might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.5 growth since the last election. Partido Socialista, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 36.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Duplimétrica. For this purpose, 600 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (27.02.2024 - 29.02.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
12
5.2%
CDU
4
1.7%
L
9
3.9%
PAN
2
0.9%
PS
65
28.3%
IL
14
6.1%
AD
83
36.1%
CH
41
17.8%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
64.3%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
53.9%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + CDU
45.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Duplimétrica. The survey took place between 27.02.2024 and 29.02.2024 among 600 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 34%, Partido Socialista 27%, Chega 17%, Iniciativa Liberal 6%, Bloco de Esquerda 5%, LIVRE 4%, CDU 2% and PAN 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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