Portugal: Poll by CESOP-UCP from 05.03.2024

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
AD
34.0
+1.0
PS
28.0
+1.0
CH
16.0
-1.0
IL
6.0
±0.0
BE
5.0
±0.0
CDU
5.0
+2.0
L
3.0
-1.0
PAN
1.0
-1.0
Others
2.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 18.05.2025
AD
+2.2
PS
+5.2
CH
-6.8
IL
+0.6
BE
+3.0
CDU
+2.1
L
-1.1
PAN
-0.4
CESOP-UCP – 2405 respondents – 28.02.2024-05.03.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates Aliança Democrática higher

In 55% of election polls, CESOP-UCP rates Aliança Democrática higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Chega lower

In 40% of election polls CESOP-UCP rates Chega lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista higher

In 32% of election polls, CESOP-UCP rates Partido Socialista higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from CESOP-UCP shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 34%, Partido Socialista 28%, Chega 16%, Iniciativa Liberal 6%, Bloco de Esquerda 5%, CDU 5%, LIVRE 3% and PAN 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Partido Socialista might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.2 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-6.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 35.2% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CESOP-UCP. For this purpose, 2405 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (28.02.2024 - 05.03.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
11
4.8%
CDU
11
4.8%
L
7
3%
PAN
2
0.9%
PS
66
28.7%
IL
14
6.1%
AD
81
35.2%
CH
38
16.5%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
63.9%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
51.7%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE
47.4%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by CESOP-UCP. The survey took place between 28.02.2024 and 05.03.2024 among 2405 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 34%, Partido Socialista 28%, Chega 16%, Iniciativa Liberal 6%, Bloco de Esquerda 5%, CDU 5%, LIVRE 3% and PAN 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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