Portugal: Poll by Intercampus from 04.06.2024

Polling data

AD
29.5
+5.2
PS
27.1
-1.6
CH
16.1
+0.5
IL
9.4
+1.5
BE
7.2
-2.5
L
5.5
-0.2
PAN
3.1
+0.2
CDU
1.7
-0.6
Others
0.4
-2.5
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
AD
±0.0
PS
-1.6
CH
-2.0
IL
+4.3
BE
+2.7
L
+2.2
PAN
+1.2
CDU
-1.6
Intercampus – 604 respondents – 29.05.2024-04.06.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 604 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher

In 42% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher

In 33% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 40% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from Intercampus shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 29.5%, Partido Socialista 27.1%, Chega 16.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 9.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 7.2%, LIVRE 5.5%, PAN 3.1% and CDU 1.7%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Iniciativa Liberal might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.3 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.0) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 29.6% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Intercampus. For this purpose, 604 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (29.05.2024 - 04.06.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
16
7.2%
CDU
3
1.7%
L
12
5.5%
PAN
7
3.1%
PS
63
27.2%
IL
22
9.4%
AD
69
29.6%
CH
38
16.2%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
57.4%
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
56.1%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + PAN
52.2%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + CDU
50.4%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Intercampus. The survey took place between 29.05.2024 and 04.06.2024 among 604 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 29.5%, Partido Socialista 27.1%, Chega 16.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 9.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 7.2%, LIVRE 5.5%, PAN 3.1% and CDU 1.7%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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