Portugal: Poll by CESOP-UCP from 13.07.2024

Polling data

PS
33.0
+4.0
AD
31.0
+1.0
CH
14.0
-5.0
IL
7.0
+2.0
BE
4.0
±0.0
CDU
3.0
±0.0
L
3.0
-2.0
PAN
2.0
±0.0
Others
3.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+4.3
AD
+1.5
CH
-4.1
IL
+1.9
BE
-0.5
CDU
-0.3
L
-0.3
PAN
+0.1
CESOP-UCP – 957 respondents – 07.07.2024-13.07.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates Aliança Democrática higher

In 71% of election polls, CESOP-UCP rates Aliança Democrática higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Chega lower

In 43% of election polls CESOP-UCP rates Chega lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from CESOP-UCP shows the following results: Partido Socialista 33%, Aliança Democrática 31%, Chega 14%, Iniciativa Liberal 7%, Bloco de Esquerda 4%, CDU 3%, LIVRE 3% and PAN 2%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Partido Socialista might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.3 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 32.6% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CESOP-UCP. For this purpose, 957 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (07.07.2024 - 13.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
9
3.9%
CDU
7
3%
L
7
3%
PAN
4
1.7%
PS
79
34.3%
IL
16
7%
AD
75
32.6%
CH
33
14.3%
Partido Socialista + Aliança Democrática
67.0%
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
53.9%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE
51.3%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN
50.0%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + PAN
50.0%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE + PAN
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by CESOP-UCP. The survey took place between 07.07.2024 and 13.07.2024 among 957 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 33%, Aliança Democrática 31%, Chega 14%, Iniciativa Liberal 7%, Bloco de Esquerda 4%, CDU 3%, LIVRE 3% and PAN 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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