Portugal: Poll by ICS/ISCTE from 20.01.2025

Polling data

AD
33.0
+2.0
PS
30.0
±0.0
CH
17.0
±0.0
IL
4.0
±0.0
BE
3.0
-2.0
CDU
3.0
±0.0
L
2.0
±0.0
PAN
2.0
±0.0
Others
6.0
±0.0
ICS/ISCTE – 805 respondents – 09.01.2025-20.01.2025

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Low number of respondents

Only 805 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda lower

In 31% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Bloco de Esquerda lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower

In 60% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LIVRE lower

In 56% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates LIVRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista higher

In 50% of election polls, ICS/ISCTE rates Partido Socialista higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from ICS/ISCTE shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 33%, Partido Socialista 30%, Chega 17%, Iniciativa Liberal 4%, Bloco de Esquerda 3%, CDU 3%, LIVRE 2% and PAN 2%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Aliança Democrática might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.5 growth since the last election. Bloco de Esquerda, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 35.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by ICS/ISCTE. For this purpose, 805 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 11 days (09.01.2025 - 20.01.2025).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
7
3%
CDU
7
3%
L
4
1.7%
PAN
4
1.7%
PS
74
32.2%
IL
10
4.3%
AD
82
35.7%
CH
42
18.3%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
67.8%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
53.9%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by ICS/ISCTE. The survey took place between 09.01.2025 and 20.01.2025 among 805 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 33%, Partido Socialista 30%, Chega 17%, Iniciativa Liberal 4%, Bloco de Esquerda 3%, CDU 3%, LIVRE 2% and PAN 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.