Portugal: Poll by Aximage from 28.01.2025

Portugal: Polling data

AD
29.3
-0.5
PS
28.1
-0.5
CH
18.4
+0.2
IL
5.6
-1.2
L
4.1
±0.0
BE
3.8
-0.2
CDU
3.5
+0.9
PAN
2.4
±0.0
Others
4.8
+1.3
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
AD
-0.2
PS
-0.6
CH
+0.3
IL
+0.5
L
+0.8
BE
-0.7
CDU
+0.2
PAN
+0.5
Aximage – 800 respondents – 23.01.2025-28.01.2025

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 59.

Low number of respondents

Only 800 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Aliança Democrática lower

In 50% of election polls Aximage rates Aliança Democrática lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Aximage shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 29.3%, Partido Socialista 28.1%, Chega 18.4%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.6%, LIVRE 4.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 3.8%, CDU 3.5% and PAN 2.4%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, LIVRE might gain the most in voter favorability with +0.8 growth since the last election. Bloco de Esquerda, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-0.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 31.3% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Aximage. For this purpose, 800 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (23.01.2025 - 28.01.2025).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
9
3.9%
CDU
8
3.5%
L
10
4.3%
PAN
5
2.2%
PS
68
29.6%
IL
13
5.7%
AD
72
31.3%
CH
45
19.6%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
60.9%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
50.9%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Aximage. The survey took place between 23.01.2025 and 28.01.2025 among 800 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 29.3%, Partido Socialista 28.1%, Chega 18.4%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.6%, LIVRE 4.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 3.8%, CDU 3.5% and PAN 2.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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