Portugal: Poll by Consulmark2 from 03.04.2025

Portugal: Polling data

AD
33.3
+1.2
PS
25.9
-2.1
CH
13.5
-3.0
IL
8.1
+0.4
L
4.3
+1.9
BE
3.8
+0.4
CDU
2.5
-0.7
PAN
1.4
+0.8
Others
7.2
+1.1
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
AD
+3.8
PS
-2.8
CH
-4.6
IL
+3.0
L
+1.0
BE
-0.7
CDU
-0.8
PAN
-0.5
Consulmark2 – 583 respondents – 27.04.2025-03.04.2025

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 18.

Low number of respondents

Only 583 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Aliança Democrática higher

In 83% of election polls, Consulmark2 rates Aliança Democrática higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PAN lower

In 38% of election polls Consulmark2 rates PAN lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 75% of election polls Consulmark2 rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Consulmark2 shows the following results: Aliança Democrática 33.3%, Partido Socialista 25.9%, Chega 13.5%, Iniciativa Liberal 8.1%, LIVRE 4.3%, Bloco de Esquerda 3.8%, CDU 2.5% and PAN 1.4%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Aliança Democrática might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.8 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.6) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 36.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Consulmark2. For this purpose, 583 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 24 days (27.04.2025 - 03.04.2025).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
9
3.9%
CDU
6
2.6%
L
10
4.3%
PAN
3
1.3%
PS
65
28.3%
IL
20
8.7%
AD
84
36.5%
CH
33
14.3%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
64.8%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
50.9%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Consulmark2. The survey took place between 27.04.2025 and 03.04.2025 among 583 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Aliança Democrática 33.3%, Partido Socialista 25.9%, Chega 13.5%, Iniciativa Liberal 8.1%, LIVRE 4.3%, Bloco de Esquerda 3.8%, CDU 2.5% and PAN 1.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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