Current Election Trend for Portugal
Who is leading in the election trend in Portugal?
In the current election trend in Portugal, Aliança Democrática leads with 29.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
Partido Socialista reaches 28.7% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
Chega reaches 18.1% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
Iniciativa Liberal reaches 5.1% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
Bloco de Esquerda reaches 4.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
CDU reaches 3.3% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
LIVRE reaches 3.3% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
PAN reaches 1.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
ADN reaches 1.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).
4% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Duplimétrica, Consulmark2, CESOP-UCP, Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, Aximage and ICS/ISCTE, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.
Therefore, the will of at least 0 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 9 parties could enter parliament: Aliança Democrática, Partido Socialista, Chega, Iniciativa Liberal, Bloco de Esquerda, CDU, LIVRE, PAN and ADN reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament
Latest polls for Portugal
What is the latest poll for Portugal?
Coalitions
Which coalitions are currently possible in Portugal?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Portugal shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Election trend by party at a glance
| Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliança Democrática |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
| Partido Socialista |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+0.2
|
±0.0
|
| Chega |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+4.3
|
±0.0
|
| Iniciativa Liberal |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-2.7
|
±0.0
|
| Bloco de Esquerda |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-2.5
|
±0.0
|
| CDU |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-1.1
|
±0.0
|
| LIVRE |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+1.7
|
±0.0
|
| PAN |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-0.6
|
±0.0
|
| ADN |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
Portugal — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of Portugal?
In the parliament of Portugal, there are 226 representatives from 8 parties. 79 representatives are part of the government from Aliança Democrática. The opposition from Partido Socialista, Chega, Iniciativa Liberal, Bloco de Esquerda, LIVRE, CDU and PAN has 147 representatives.
91 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 127 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in Portugal?
Parliamentary election in Portugal 2028
The Parliamentary election in Portugal 2028 will probably take place in 2028. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Aliança Democrática. In the last Parliamentary election in Portugal in 2024, Aliança Democrática (29.5% - 79 seats), Partido Socialista (28.7% - 77 seats), Chega (18.1% - 48 seats), Iniciativa Liberal (5.1% - 8 seats), Bloco de Esquerda (4.5% - 5 seats), LIVRE (3.3% - 4 seats), CDU (3.3% - 4 seats) and PAN (1.9% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 66.2%.