Latest Opinion Poll for Rhineland-Palatinate (Infratest dimap, October 30, 2023)

October 25, 2023 - October 30, 2023

1481 respondents

Next General election in Rhineland-Palatinate: March 22, 2026

The next General election in Rhineland-Palatinate takes place in 15 days.

Rhineland-Palatinate: Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 42.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Rhineland-Palatinate, conducted by Infratest dimap on October 30, 2023, CDU leads with 31%. Trailing behind are SPD: 22%, AfD: 17%, Grüne: 12%, FDP: 5% and Freie Wähler: 5%. Other parties secure 8% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Rhineland-Palatinate
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

85

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 85 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

101
Majority requires 51 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Rhineland-Palatinate election is 5%.

CDU + SPD
Centre
57.4%
CDU + AfD
Right
52.5%
CDU + Grüne + FDP
Centre
52.5%
CDU + Grüne + Freie Wähler
Centre
51.5%
SPD + Grüne + FDP + Freie Wähler
Centre-Left
47.5%
CDU + Grüne
Centre
46.5%
CDU + FDP + Freie Wähler
Centre-Right
44.6%
SPD + Grüne + FDP
Left
42.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)

According to data from Infratest dimap, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Rhineland-Palatinate parliament: CDU with 34 representatives, SPD with 24 representatives, AfD with 19 representatives, Grüne with 13 representatives, FDP with 6 representatives and Freie Wähler with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Rhineland-Palatinate

Rhineland-Palatinate employs a dual-vote electoral system, utilizing both 'constituency votes' (Wahlkreisstimme) and 'state list votes' (Landesstimme). This system is designed to allocate 101 parliamentary seats. A key feature is the Sainte-Laguë method, which ensures highly proportional representation of voter preferences. The state prioritizes robust regional representation, achieved by linking constituency and state lists.

Electoral Thresholds

Rhineland-Palatinate strictly enforces a five-percent electoral threshold. Recently, smaller parties like the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) have proven that strong regional roots can enable them to clear this 5% hurdle, even within a stable party system. No basic mandate clause exists.

Government Formation and Traditions

Rhineland-Palatinate gained prominence for its 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Greens, FDP), a model successfully implemented here well before its adoption at the federal level. Government formation in Mainz is defined by a culture of dialogue and compromise, fostering significant political stability within the state.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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