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Latest Opinion Poll for Rhineland-Palatinate (Infratest dimap, June 3, 2025)

May 27, 2025 - June 3, 2025

1140 respondents

Next General Election in Rhineland-Palatinate: 2031

The next General Election in Rhineland-Palatinate is expected in 2031.

Rhineland-Palatinate: Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 61.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?

According to the latest national poll in Rhineland-Palatinate by Infratest dimap, CDU leads with 30%. They are followed by SPD: 23%, AfD: 17%, Grüne: 11%, Die Linke: 5%, Freie Wähler: 4% and FDP: 3%. Other parties secure 7% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Rhineland-Palatinate
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
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What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Rhineland-Palatinate
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Rhineland-Palatinate election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • CDU
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  • SPD
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  • AfD
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • CDU
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  • SPD
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  • AfD
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • Grüne
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  • Linke
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  • FW
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)

According to data from Infratest dimap, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Rhineland-Palatinate parliament: CDU with 35 representatives, SPD with 27 representatives, AfD with 20 representatives, Grüne with 13 representatives and Die Linke with 6 representatives.

The Electoral System in Rhineland-Palatinate

Rhineland-Palatinate employs a dual-vote electoral system, utilizing both 'constituency votes' (Wahlkreisstimme) and 'state list votes' (Landesstimme). This system is designed to allocate 101 parliamentary seats. A key feature is the Sainte-Laguë method, which ensures highly proportional representation of voter preferences. The state prioritizes robust regional representation, achieved by linking constituency and state lists.

Electoral Thresholds

Rhineland-Palatinate strictly enforces a five-percent electoral threshold. Recently, smaller parties like the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) have proven that strong regional roots can enable them to clear this 5% hurdle, even within a stable party system. No basic mandate clause exists.

Government Formation and Traditions

Rhineland-Palatinate gained prominence for its 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Greens, FDP), a model successfully implemented here well before its adoption at the federal level. Government formation in Mainz is defined by a culture of dialogue and compromise, fostering significant political stability within the state.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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