Latest Opinion Poll for Rhineland-Palatinate (Infratest dimap, January 20, 2026)

January 14, 2026 - January 20, 2026

1151 respondents

Next General election in Rhineland-Palatinate: March 22, 2026

The next General election in Rhineland-Palatinate takes place in 42 days.

Rhineland-Palatinate: Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 40.6% of the parliamentary seats.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

85

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 85 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

101
Majority requires 51 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Rhineland-Palatinate election is 5%.

CDU + SPD
Centre
62.4%
CDU + AfD
Right
52.5%
SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
Left
47.5%
CDU + Grüne
Centre
43.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)

According to data from :institute, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Rhineland-Palatinate parliament: CDU with 33 representatives, SPD with 30 representatives, AfD with 20 representatives, Grüne with 11 representatives and Die Linke with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Rhineland-Palatinate

Rhineland-Palatinate employs a dual-vote electoral system, utilizing both 'constituency votes' (Wahlkreisstimme) and 'state list votes' (Landesstimme). This system is designed to allocate 101 parliamentary seats. A key feature is the Sainte-Laguë method, which ensures highly proportional representation of voter preferences. The state prioritizes robust regional representation, achieved by linking constituency and state lists.

Electoral Thresholds

Rhineland-Palatinate strictly enforces a five-percent electoral threshold. Recently, smaller parties like the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) have proven that strong regional roots can enable them to clear this 5% hurdle, even within a stable party system. No basic mandate clause exists.

Government Formation and Traditions

Rhineland-Palatinate gained prominence for its 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Greens, FDP), a model successfully implemented here well before its adoption at the federal level. Government formation in Mainz is defined by a culture of dialogue and compromise, fostering significant political stability within the state.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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