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Latest Opinion Poll for Rhineland-Palatinate (INSA, September 23, 2025)

September 16, 2025 - September 23, 2025

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Rhineland-Palatinate: 2031

The next General Election in Rhineland-Palatinate is expected in 2031.

Rhineland-Palatinate: Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 56.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

According to the latest national poll in Rhineland-Palatinate by INSA, CDU leads with 27%. They are followed by AfD: 23%, SPD: 22%, Grüne: 9%, Die Linke: 6%, BSW: 4%, FDP: 4% and Freie Wähler: 3%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Rhineland-Palatinate
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Rhineland-Palatinate
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

82

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 82 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Rhineland-Palatinate election is 5%.

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to data from INSA, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Rhineland-Palatinate parliament: CDU with 31 representatives, AfD with 27 representatives, SPD with 26 representatives, Grüne with 10 representatives and Die Linke with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Rhineland-Palatinate

Rhineland-Palatinate employs a dual-vote electoral system, utilizing both 'constituency votes' (Wahlkreisstimme) and 'state list votes' (Landesstimme). This system is designed to allocate 101 parliamentary seats. A key feature is the Sainte-Laguë method, which ensures highly proportional representation of voter preferences. The state prioritizes robust regional representation, achieved by linking constituency and state lists.

Electoral Thresholds

Rhineland-Palatinate strictly enforces a five-percent electoral threshold. Recently, smaller parties like the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) have proven that strong regional roots can enable them to clear this 5% hurdle, even within a stable party system. No basic mandate clause exists.

Government Formation and Traditions

Rhineland-Palatinate gained prominence for its 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Greens, FDP), a model successfully implemented here well before its adoption at the federal level. Government formation in Mainz is defined by a culture of dialogue and compromise, fostering significant political stability within the state.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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