Latest voting intention survey by Argument for Romania
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Romania conducted by Argument, the parties received the following results: PSD 37.5%, AUR 20.1%, PNL 17.1%, USR 15.7%, S.O.S. 5.1%, UDMR 2.4% and FD 2.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1100 people during the period 22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024.
1100 participants
22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024
Argument
Seats in parliament
330
Majority requires 166 seats
PSD
131
39.7%
USR
54
16.4%
PNL
59
17.9%
AUR
69
20.9%
SOS
17
5.2%
PSD + PNL
PSD + USR
AUR + PNL + USR
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Argument pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 5.4 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
5.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Rumänien 2024 | 2/2 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.