Latest voting intention survey by Argument for Romania
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Romania conducted by Argument, the parties received the following results: PSD 37.5%, AUR 20.1%, PNL 17.1%, USR 15.7%, S.O.S. 5.1%, UDMR 2.4% and FD 2.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1100 people during the period 22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024.
1100 participants
01.11.2024 - 22.11.2024
Argument
Seats in parliament
330
Majority requires 166 seats
PSD
131
39.7%
USR
54
16.4%
PNL
59
17.9%
AUR
69
20.9%
SOS
17
5.2%
PSD + PNL
PSD + USR
AUR + PNL + USR
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
5.4
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Argument pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 5.4 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
5.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Rumänien 2024 | 3/3 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.