Latest voting intention survey by Atlas Intel for Romania
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Romania conducted by Atlas Intel, the parties received the following results: AUR 22.4%, PSD 21.4%, USR 17.5%, PNL 13.4%, UDMR 5.5%, POT 4.6%, S.O.S. 4.6%, FD 2.5%, SENS 2.5%, REPER 1.5% and DREPT 0.9%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2116 people during the period 28.11.2024 - 28.11.2024.
2116 participants
26.11.2024 - 28.11.2024
Atlas Intel
Seats in parliament
330
Majority requires 166 seats
PSD
88
26.7%
USR
72
21.8%
UDMR
22
6.7%
PNL
55
16.7%
AUR
93
28.2%
AUR + USR + PNL
PSD + USR + PNL
AUR + USR + UDMR
PSD + USR + UDMR
AUR + PNL + UDMR
PSD + PNL + UDMR
AUR + USR
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Atlas Intel pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.3 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.27
|
Parliamentary Election in Rumänien 2024 | 1/2 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.