Latest voting intention survey by IMAS for Romania
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Romania conducted by IMAS, the parties received the following results: PNL 28.6%, PSD 23.6%, USR 18%, PRO România 9.5%, UDMR 4.7%, PMP 4.6%, ALDE 3.3% and PPU 1.8%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1010 people during the period 27.11.2020 - 27.11.2020. The survey was commissioned by Europa FM.
1010 participants
06.11.2020 - 27.11.2020
IMAS
Europa FM
Seats in parliament
330
Majority requires 166 seats
PSD
98
29.7%
PRO
39
11.8%
USR
74
22.4%
PNL
119
36.1%
PNL + PSD
PNL + USR
PSD + USR
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in IMAS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.98
|
Parliamentary Election in Rumänien 2020 | 3/4 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.