Latest voting intention survey by IRES for Romania
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Romania conducted by IRES, the parties received the following results: PSD 35%, PNL 27%, USR 14%, AUR 14%, UDMR 5%, PMP 2%, PRO România 2% and ALDE 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1006 people during the period 19.08.2021 - 19.08.2021.
1006 participants
16.08.2021 - 19.08.2021
IRES
Seats in parliament
330
Majority requires 166 seats
PSD
122
37%
USR
49
14.8%
UDMR
17
5.2%
PNL
94
28.5%
AUR
48
14.5%
PSD + PNL
PNL + USR + AUR
PSD + USR
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in IRES pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.9 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
3.86
|
Parliamentary Election in Rumänien 2020 | 4/4 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.