Latest voting intention survey by Sociopol for Romania
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Romania conducted by Sociopol, the parties received the following results: PSD 29%, AUR 23%, PNL 15%, USR 15%, UDMR 5%, PER 3%, PMP 3%, S.O.S. 3%, PRO România 2% and FD 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1004 people during the period 19.09.2023 - 19.09.2023.
1004 participants
08.09.2023 - 19.09.2023
Sociopol
Seats in parliament
330
Majority requires 166 seats
PSD
111
33.6%
USR
57
17.3%
UDMR
18
5.5%
PNL
57
17.3%
AUR
87
26.4%
AUR + USR + PNL
PSD + PNL
PSD + USR
AUR + PNL + UDMR
AUR + USR + UDMR
Rating of parties
Institute often rates AUR higher
In 43% of election polls, Sociopol rates AUR higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PNL lower
In 47% of election polls Sociopol rates PNL lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSD higher
In 32% of election polls, Sociopol rates PSD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.9
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Sociopol pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.9 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.89
|
Parliamentary Election in Rumänien 2020 | 1/5 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.