Latest Opinion Poll for Romania (IMAS, November 27, 2020)

November 6, 2020 - November 27, 2020

1010 respondents

Next General election in Romania: 2028

The next General election in Romania is expected in 2028.

Romania's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the IMAS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 88.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IMAS?

In the latest opinion poll for Romania's upcoming election, conducted by IMAS on November 27, 2020, PNL leads with 28.6%. Trailing are PSD: 23.6%, USR: 18%, PRO România: 9.5%, UDMR: 4.7%, PMP: 4.6%, ALDE: 3.3% and PPU: 1.8%. Other parties secure 5.9% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Romania
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Romania

Quality Check: How Reliable is the IMAS Projection?

50

PolitPro Score

IMAS achieved a PolitPro Score of 50 out of 100.

3.0

Election Accuracy

On average, IMAS's figures deviate by 3.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

IMAS at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

330
Majority requires 166 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Romania is 5%.

PNL + PSD
Centre-Right
65.8%
PNL + USR
Centre
58.5%
PSD + USR
Centre
52.1%
PNL + PRO România
Centre-Right
47.9%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IMAS)

According to IMAS, 4 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Romanian Parliament: PNL with 119 representatives, PSD with 98 representatives, USR with 74 representatives and PRO România with 39 representatives.

Romania's Electoral System

Romania operates a bicameral parliamentary system, comprising the Chamber of Deputies (Camera Deputaților) and the Senate (Senat). Both chambers are simultaneously elected every four years through a closed-list proportional representation system. A distinctive feature of Romania's electoral framework is the guaranteed representation of national minorities: minority organizations that fail to meet the general electoral threshold are still allocated a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, provided they secure a specific nationwide vote count. This ensures broad ethnic diversity within Parliament, encompassing over 18 distinct minority groups.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter both chambers of the Romanian Parliament, individual parties face a nationwide electoral threshold of 5% of the total votes cast. For electoral alliances, the hurdle is tiered: 8% for two-party coalitions, 9% for three parties, and 10% for four or more parties. Alternatively, a party can secure parliamentary representation if it garners over 20% of the votes in at least four constituencies for the Chamber of Deputies and in at least two constituencies for the Senate. These regulations aim to foster the formation of stable parliamentary factions and prevent excessive fragmentation.

Government Formation and Traditions

As Romania's electoral system rarely yields an absolute majority for a single party, coalition governments are the norm. Following consultations with parliamentary parties, the President nominates a candidate for Prime Minister. This nominee must form a cabinet within 10 days and secure a vote of confidence from both chambers of Parliament in a joint session. Romanian politics often features dynamic and shifting coalition alliances, which rely on a solid majority in both houses for stable legislation.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

Found a Mistake?

Political data is constantly evolving. If you spot an error, please let us know. A brief reference to your source will help us verify and update the information.