Latest Opinion Poll for Romania (IRES, December 3, 2020)

December 2, 2020 - December 3, 2020

1067 respondents

Next General election in Romania: 2028

The next General election in Romania is expected in 2028.

Romania's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the IRES projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 92.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IRES?

In the latest opinion poll for Romania's upcoming election, conducted by IRES on December 3, 2020, PSD leads with 35%. Trailing are PNL: 32%, USR: 16%, PRO România: 7%, AUR: 3%, PMP: 3% and UDMR: 3%. Other parties secure 1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Romania
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the IRES Projection?

?

PolitPro Score

IRES achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

3.9

Election Accuracy

On average, IRES's figures deviate by 3.9 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

IRES at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

330
Majority requires 166 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Romania is 5%.

PNL + PSD
Centre-Right
61.2%
PSD + USR + PRO România
Centre
57.9%
PNL + USR
Centre
55.5%
PNL + PRO România + UDMR
Centre-Right
54.8%
PSD + USR + UDMR
Centre
51.5%
PNL + PRO România
Centre-Right
48.5%
PSD + USR
Centre
45.2%
PSD + PRO România + UDMR
Centre-Right
44.5%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IMAS)

According to IMAS, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Romanian Parliament: PNL with 118 representatives, PSD with 84 representatives, USR with 65 representatives, PRO România with 42 representatives and UDMR with 21 representatives.

Romania's Electoral System

Romania operates a bicameral parliamentary system, comprising the Chamber of Deputies (Camera Deputaților) and the Senate (Senat). Both chambers are simultaneously elected every four years through a closed-list proportional representation system. A distinctive feature of Romania's electoral framework is the guaranteed representation of national minorities: minority organizations that fail to meet the general electoral threshold are still allocated a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, provided they secure a specific nationwide vote count. This ensures broad ethnic diversity within Parliament, encompassing over 18 distinct minority groups.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter both chambers of the Romanian Parliament, individual parties face a nationwide electoral threshold of 5% of the total votes cast. For electoral alliances, the hurdle is tiered: 8% for two-party coalitions, 9% for three parties, and 10% for four or more parties. Alternatively, a party can secure parliamentary representation if it garners over 20% of the votes in at least four constituencies for the Chamber of Deputies and in at least two constituencies for the Senate. These regulations aim to foster the formation of stable parliamentary factions and prevent excessive fragmentation.

Government Formation and Traditions

As Romania's electoral system rarely yields an absolute majority for a single party, coalition governments are the norm. Following consultations with parliamentary parties, the President nominates a candidate for Prime Minister. This nominee must form a cabinet within 10 days and secure a vote of confidence from both chambers of Parliament in a joint session. Romanian politics often features dynamic and shifting coalition alliances, which rely on a solid majority in both houses for stable legislation.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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