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Latest Opinion Poll for Romania (Socio-Data, August 30, 2019)

August 26, 2019 - August 30, 2019

1070 respondents

Next Romania's General Election: 2028

The next Romania's General Election is expected in 2028.

Romania's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Socio-Data projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 53.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Socio-Data?

According to the latest national poll in Romania by Socio-Data, PNL holds a 26% lead. Trailing are Alianța 2020: 24%, PSD: 22%, PRO România: 10%, ALDE: 6%, PMP: 5% and UDMR: 4%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Romania
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Romania
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Socio-Data Projection?

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PolitPro Score

Socio-Data achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Socio-Data's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Socio-Data at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Romania is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • PNL
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  • PSD
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • PNL
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  • PSD
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • UDMR
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Socio-Data)

According to Socio-Data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Romanian Parliament: PNL with 93 representatives, Alianța 2020 with 85 representatives, PSD with 78 representatives, PRO România with 36 representatives, ALDE with 21 representatives and PMP with 17 representatives.

Romania's Electoral System

Romania operates a bicameral parliamentary system, comprising the Chamber of Deputies (Camera Deputaților) and the Senate (Senat). Both chambers are simultaneously elected every four years through a closed-list proportional representation system. A distinctive feature of Romania's electoral framework is the guaranteed representation of national minorities: minority organizations that fail to meet the general electoral threshold are still allocated a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, provided they secure a specific nationwide vote count. This ensures broad ethnic diversity within Parliament, encompassing over 18 distinct minority groups.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter both chambers of the Romanian Parliament, individual parties face a nationwide electoral threshold of 5% of the total votes cast. For electoral alliances, the hurdle is tiered: 8% for two-party coalitions, 9% for three parties, and 10% for four or more parties. Alternatively, a party can secure parliamentary representation if it garners over 20% of the votes in at least four constituencies for the Chamber of Deputies and in at least two constituencies for the Senate. These regulations aim to foster the formation of stable parliamentary factions and prevent excessive fragmentation.

Government Formation and Traditions

As Romania's electoral system rarely yields an absolute majority for a single party, coalition governments are the norm. Following consultations with parliamentary parties, the President nominates a candidate for Prime Minister. This nominee must form a cabinet within 10 days and secure a vote of confidence from both chambers of Parliament in a joint session. Romanian politics often features dynamic and shifting coalition alliances, which rely on a solid majority in both houses for stable legislation.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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