Romania: Poll by Avangarde from 16.01.2025

Romania: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
AUR
29.0
+18.0
PSD
22.0
-15.0
PNL
13.0
-10.0
USR
13.0
+4.0
SOS
8.0
+8.0
POT
5.0
+5.0
UDMR
4.0
-1.0
PMP
3.0
-1.0
FD
2.0
±0.0
Others
1.0
-8.0
Development since the last election on 01.12.2024
AUR
+11.1
PSD
-0.1
PNL
-0.3
USR
+0.7
SOS
+0.7
POT
-1.4
UDMR
-2.4
PMP
+3.0
FD
-0.1
Avangarde – 1354 respondents – 10.01.2025-16.01.2025

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Romania is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates PNL lower

In 33% of election polls Avangarde rates PNL lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSD higher

In 33% of election polls, Avangarde rates PSD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Romania - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Romania from Avangarde shows the following results: AUR 29%, PSD 22%, PNL 13%, USR 13%, S.O.S. 8%, POT 5%, UDMR 4%, PMP 3% and FD 2%. If an election were held in Romania this Sunday, AUR might gain the most in voter favorability with +11.1 growth since the last election. UDMR, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Currently governing with a Coalition of the center from PSD, PNL and UDMR. With 39.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Avangarde. For this purpose, 1354 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (10.01.2025 - 16.01.2025).

Coalition possibilities

330
Majority requires 166 seats
PSD
81
24.5%
USR
47
14.2%
PNL
48
14.5%
AUR
107
32.4%
SOS
29
8.8%
POT
18
5.5%
AUR + PNL + USR
61.2%
AUR + PNL + S.O.S.
55.8%
AUR + USR + S.O.S.
55.5%
PSD + PNL + USR
53.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Romania was conducted by Avangarde. The survey took place between 10.01.2025 and 16.01.2025 among 1354 eligible voters. After this election poll would get AUR 29%, PSD 22%, PNL 13%, USR 13%, S.O.S. 8%, POT 5%, UDMR 4%, PMP 3% and FD 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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