Latest Opinion Poll for the Russia Election (WCIOM, May 31, 2026)

May 25, 2026 - May 31, 2026

1600 respondents

Next Russia's General Election: 2026

The next Russia's General Election is expected in 2026.

Russia's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the WCIOM projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 62.7% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from WCIOM?

According to the latest national poll in Russia by WCIOM, YeR leads with 40.2%. They are followed by LDPR: 14.7%, KPRF: 12.7%, NL: 12.6% and SRPZP: 7.7%. Other parties secure 9.7% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the WCIOM Projection?

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Russia is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • YeR
    ??%
  • LDPR
    ??%
  • KPRF
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • YeR
    ??%
  • LDPR
    ??%
  • KPRF
    ??%
  • NL
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SRPZP
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

YeR + LDPR
Unknown
62.7%
YeR + KPRF
Unknown
60.2%
YeR + NL
Unknown
60.0%
YeR + SRPZP
Unknown
54.4%
YeR
Unknown
45.8%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: WCIOM)

According to WCIOM data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Russia's parliament: YeR with 206 representatives, LDPR with 76 representatives, KPRF with 65 representatives, NL with 64 representatives and SRPZP with 39 representatives.

Data Sources and Methodology

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