Latest Opinion Poll for the Salzburg Election (Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft, March 28, 2023)

March 23, 2023 - March 28, 2023

800 respondents

Next General election in Salzburg: 2028

The next General election in Salzburg is expected in 2028.

Salzburg's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 36.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft?

The latest opinion poll for the Salzburg election, released by Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft on March 28, 2023, reveals FPÖ commanding 29% of support. The other contenders include ÖVP: 29%, SPÖ: 21%, GRÜNE: 7%, NEOS: 7% and KPÖ: 5%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft Projection?

80

PolitPro Score

Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft achieved a PolitPro Score of 80 out of 100.

2.0

Election Accuracy

On average, Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft's figures deviate by 2.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

36
Majority requires 19 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Salzburg election is 5%.

ÖVP + FPÖ
Right
61.1%
ÖVP + SPÖ
Centre-Right
52.8%
FPÖ + SPÖ
Right
52.8%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft)

According to Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Salzburg parliament: FPÖ with 11 representatives, ÖVP with 11 representatives, SPÖ with 8 representatives, GRÜNE with 2 representatives, NEOS with 2 representatives and KPÖ with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Salzburg

Salzburg's electoral system selects 36 representatives through proportional representation. The state is segmented into six districts, each guaranteed a fixed number of mandates based on population (e.g., Salzburg City secures 9 seats, Lungau 2). This structure ensures equitable representation for the mountainous regions, balancing their influence against the more densely populated central area.

Electoral Thresholds

Salzburg mandates a 5% electoral threshold for parties to enter the Landtag. This relatively high barrier aims to consolidate the party landscape. However, securing a basic mandate in a district can serve as a "door-opener," even if a party falls short of the 5% statewide.

Government Formation and Traditions

Salzburg's political landscape favors flexible coalition-building. Following elections, exploratory talks commence to forge a majority of at least 19 seats. Notably, Salzburg pioneered the "Dirndl-Koalition" (a three-party alliance of ÖVP, Greens, and NEOS) at the state level, underscoring the region's willingness to experiment in forming governing majorities.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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