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Latest Opinion Poll for the Salzburg Election (Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft, March 28, 2023)

March 23, 2023 - March 28, 2023

800 respondents

Next Salzburg General Election: 2028

The next Salzburg General Election is expected in 2028.

Salzburg's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 61.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft?

According to the latest national poll in Salzburg by Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft, FPÖ leads with 29%. They are followed by ÖVP: 29%, SPÖ: 21%, GRÜNE: 7%, NEOS: 7% and KPÖ: 5%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Salzburg
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft Projection?

80

PolitPro Score

Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft achieved a PolitPro Score of 80 out of 100.

2.0

Election Accuracy

On average, Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft's figures deviate by 2.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Salzburg election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • KPÖ
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft)

According to Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Salzburg parliament: FPÖ with 11 representatives, ÖVP with 11 representatives, SPÖ with 8 representatives, GRÜNE with 2 representatives, NEOS with 2 representatives and KPÖ with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Salzburg

Salzburg's electoral system selects 36 representatives through proportional representation. The state is segmented into six districts, each guaranteed a fixed number of mandates based on population (e.g., Salzburg City secures 9 seats, Lungau 2). This structure ensures equitable representation for the mountainous regions, balancing their influence against the more densely populated central area.

Electoral Thresholds

Salzburg mandates a 5% electoral threshold for parties to enter the Landtag. This relatively high barrier aims to consolidate the party landscape. However, securing a basic mandate in a district can serve as a "door-opener," even if a party falls short of the 5% statewide.

Government Formation and Traditions

Salzburg's political landscape favors flexible coalition-building. Following elections, exploratory talks commence to forge a majority of at least 19 seats. Notably, Salzburg pioneered the "Dirndl-Koalition" (a three-party alliance of ÖVP, Greens, and NEOS) at the state level, underscoring the region's willingness to experiment in forming governing majorities.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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